The math: expected value and Truffles

On average a seed pack returns 99.5 % of its price in crop value, in every tier. After a 10 % sale fee that is 89.55 %. Verified The upside comes from Truffles, so the result of a day of farming depends on the nightly Truffle payout — and that depends on how much everyone else harvests that day and what $YIELD is worth. Below is the math, first for one pack, then for a day of farming.

Expected value per pack

The game computes it itself and shows “Expected value 99.5%. One pull averages X of crops against a Y pack.” Verified

EV = Σ odds[rarity] × worth[rarity]
   = 0.45×0.5 + 0.31×1 + 0.15×1.6 + 0.06×2 + 0.025×3 + 0.005×5
   = 0.225 + 0.31 + 0.24 + 0.12 + 0.075 + 0.025
   = 0.995 × pack price

Rarity	Odds	Worth	Truffle
Common	45 %	0.5×
Uncommon	31 %	1×
Rare	15 %	1.6×
Epic	6 %	2×
Legendary	2.5 %	3×
Mythic	0.5 %	5×

Per tier

The odds and the worth multiples are the same in every tier, so the EV is always 99.5 %; only the size changes. Verified

All values in ETH, computed from the verified constants. Inferred

Spread: how lumpy one pack is

The spread of one pack is 0.6376 × its price (one standard deviation). A single Diamond pack is worth 0.125 ETH 45 % of the time and 1.25 ETH 0.5 % of the time. Over many packs the average closes in on 99.5 %: the spread of the average falls with the square root of the number of packs.

About 1 in 4 beat their pack

A seed is worth more than its pack when it is Rare or better: 15 + 6 + 2.5 + 0.5 = 24 %, before and after a 10 % fee. An Uncommon is worth exactly 1×, so after any fee it is worth less than its pack. The game rounds this to “About 1 in 4 seeds is worth more than its pack.” Verified

Calculator

What the numbers assume

1. Prices. Mainnet pack and crop prices equal today’s defaults. The game can change them. May change
2. Odds. The game rolls with the published odds. Every rip is re-checked against public drand randomness with the same table, so a different table would show up. Verified
3. Fee. 10 % for both buyers, as the game sets it today. Mainnet fees are unknown, and the docs say the Farmer’s are lower. May change
4. Market path, in ETH. On the Farmer path you get $YIELD: it carries slippage, and swapping back to ETH costs the sell tax.
5. Left out: Truffles, Fertilizer (it changes time, not value), reward packs from the mint and gas.

What crops return on their own

The expected loss is 10.45 % of the pack price, in every tier. Verified Measured against the crop value you harvest instead of the price you paid:

loss per pack ÷ crop value per pack = 0.1045 ÷ 0.995 ≈ 10.5 %

Even at a 0 % fee the EV is −0.5 %: there is no fee at which crops alone break even: “Farming isn’t a guaranteed profit.” Official source So any profit has to come from Truffles (or from $YIELD rising, on the Farmer path). Inferred How Truffles are found, weighed and paid is on Truffles and the nightly payout.

Your Truffle share ≈ your share of crop value harvested

If a Truffle’s weight is its crop’s ETH value, then, since every harvest has the same 1-in-20 roll, on average:

your Truffle weight   ≈ 1/20 × crop value you harvested today
total Truffle weight  ≈ 1/20 × crop value everyone harvested today
your share            ≈ your crop value ÷ everyone's crop value

Inferred The 1/20 cancels out. Your expected payout is tonight’s budget times your share of all the crop value harvested in the game that day.

That makes the return the same ratio for every player:

payout ÷ your crop value  ≈  (budget × $YIELD price) ÷ everyone's crop value

The break-even rule

Farming beats its crop loss on a given day when:

nightly Truffle payout (in ETH) ÷ crop value harvested  >  ~10.5 %

or, using the share rule above, for the game as a whole:

budget × $YIELD price  >  ~10.5 % × crop value everyone harvested that day

Inferred Use the price you would actually get: if you swap $YIELD back to ETH, the sell tax comes off.

Two things push the ratio down: more crop value harvested by everyone (more Truffle weight to share) and a lower $YIELD price. Two push it up: a bigger budget (a bigger pool) and a higher price. The game shows its estimate of tonight’s budget during the day; the final payout is fixed at 00:00 UTC. The total harvest is not known in advance.

A worked example

Suppose tonight’s budget is B $YIELD and 1 $YIELD is worth P ETH. Both letters stand for whatever the game and the pool show on the day; nothing here is a forecast. The night then pays B × P ETH worth of $YIELD across all Truffles, and the break-even total harvest is:

break-even crop value harvested by everyone  ≈  (B × P) ÷ 0.105

When less crop value than that is harvested in the whole game that day, the Truffles more than cover the crop loss on average; when more is harvested, they do not. Doubling everyone’s harvest halves the Truffle return per ETH of crops; doubling B or P doubles it. Inferred

One player’s day. You spend 5 ETH on Diamond packs (20 packs). Expected crop value 4.975 ETH, 4.4775 ETH after the fee: an expected crop loss of 0.5225 ETH. If everyone’s crop value that day is V ETH, your share is 4.975 ÷ V and your expected Truffle payout is (4.975 ÷ V) × B × P ETH. Your day comes out ahead on average only when that is more than 0.5225 ETH, which is the same break-even rule as above. Inferred

Luck. These are averages. Twenty harvests give one Truffle on average, and there is a 36 % chance (0.95²⁰) of finding none at all. A small farm’s result swings far more than the averages suggest; a large one comes closer to them. Inferred

Pack tier changes the scale, not the odds

If weight is crop value, a Diamond harvest carries 50× the Truffle weight of a Bronze one — but costs 50× as much. Per ETH, every tier has the same expected crop value and the same expected Truffle weight. Inferred

What does differ is speed. Higher tiers grow a little faster for the same worth (the tier factor runs from 120 for Bronze to 100 for Diamond), so a Diamond slot turns over up to 20 % more value per hour. That only matters when your slots are the limit. Inferred

Fertilizer: more harvests per slot, not more per ETH

Each Fertilizer cuts 25 % of a crop’s grow time, at most 2 per crop. Two halve the time, which doubles a slot’s harvests and so its Truffle rolls. Verified

But each harvest still comes from one pack, worth 99.5 % on average, with one 1-in-20 roll. Fertilizer does not change the EV per ETH. It lets the same 25 slots put more packs through in a day. Inferred

Inferred So Fertilizer matters when the 25 slots bind: when you would put more through the plot than it can grow. Below that, it saves time but does not change the expected result per ETH.

Still REDACTED

• How a Truffle’s weight is computed. Everything on the farming side assumes weight = crop value.
• Whether a Truffle Pig is required to find Truffles.
• The mainnet pack and crop prices, sale fees, budget settings and $YIELD price.
• How much crop value the game will harvest per day once farming is live.